Comment on CFTC-2026-0331, CFTC-2026-0331-0001, William, Mayew
William MayewOtherAcademic
Summary: William J. Mayew and Boyan Zhu from Duke University submitted a working paper providing empirical evidence on earnings conference call mention contracts. The paper analyzes whether prediction market prices provide novel information for investor relations officers beyond existing disclosures, finding that while prices are incrementally predictive, the economic improvement is modest.
Attached is a working paper providing empirical evidence on earnings conference call mention contracts. It provides empirical evidence on a central question investor relations officers ask: is there novel information in prediction market prices to help understand market information demand beyond what investor relations departments are already doing? As part of the analysis we tabulate what firm representatives trigger contract resolutions as well as the role of financial analysts in triggering resolutions.
Comments are welcome.