Comment on CFTC-2026-0331, CFTC-2026-0331-0001, John-Luke, Cerda

Dear Chairman and Commissioners, My name is John-Luke Cerda, and I'm a student based in California with a strong interest in economics and public policy. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm relatively new to these markets, but I've been following their development closely as part of my academic curiosity about how information gets aggregated in society. I believe they have significant potential, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or outright bans. As a student, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like those offered by platforms such as Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight. These markets aren't just about trading; they provide unique data and insights that aren't available through traditional polls or media. I've seen firsthand how prediction market forecasts can cut through noise and offer clearer signals on events like elections or economic shifts. This kind of transparency is a public good, and it's something academics like me rely on for research and analysis. Banning or over-restricting these markets would limit access to this data and push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which lack consumer protections and oversight. Thats a step backward, not forward. I also think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard on prediction markets, we risk ceding ground to other countries that are more open to these tools. Regulated markets here are far safer than offshore alternatives, where there's no accountability. I've read about the risks of manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are concerns. But the CFTC already has tools to address these issues, and I believe targeted rules, not broad bans, are the right approach. For instance, in response to Questions 7 and 29 from the ANPR, on balancing innovation with consumer protection and the role of informed traders, I think allowing regulated markets to operate with clear anti-manipulation enforcement ensures both safety and progress. Broad categorical restrictions, as discussed in Questions 15-22 on listed activities, would just drive users like me to less safe venues. I'm not a trader by profession, but I see prediction markets as a way for regular people to engage with real-world events in an informed way. They encourage research and critical thinking, which aligns with my academic values. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that protects consumers while allowing these markets to grow under proper oversight. Let's keep this innovation in the U.S., where it can be done safely. Thank you for considering my input. Sincerely, John-Luke Cerda